A 2.3% Raise in a 3% World: What the Governor’s Budget Means for Methuen
Written by: Dan Shibilia
On January 28, Governor Healey released her proposed FY27 budget. For Methuen, the headline number looks positive at first glance: $72,676,678 in Chapter 70 education aid. (Source: https://budget.digital.mass.gov/govbudget/fy27/local-aid/)
That’s up from $71,034,365 last year which is an increase of $1,642,313, or 2.312%.
Here’s the problem: costs aren’t rising 2.312%. They’re rising faster. It’s essential for people to begin discussing this now, rather than in May and June when the Council and Mayor start their budget meetings.
Across the City of Methuen, employees are receiving 3% raises this year. That alone outpaces the growth in Chapter 70 aid. And salaries aren’t the only pressure:
Health insurance continues to climb
Special education costs keep rising
Transportation and utilities remain volatile
Contractual obligations don’t pause just because aid growth slows.
Fun Fact… the state will set the special ad rates soon. Typically, they outpace Ch 70.
At the same time, Methuen’s tax base hasn’t meaningfully changed yet. There’s no major new commercial growth online to absorb these increases. That means the city and the school district are being asked to do more with less… again.
What This Means in Real Terms…
A 2.312% increase isn’t a cut on paper, but it functions like one in practice.
When revenue growth trails fixed cost growth:
Budgets get tighter
Positions go unfilled or are delayed
Class sizes face pressure
Programs get scrutinized or reduced
One-time fixes (like using reserves) become tempting but risky
This isn’t about mismanagement or waste. It’s about structural math that doesn’t balance.
In real words, this means layoffs, deferred maintenance, and continued neglect.
Chapter 70 is supposed to ensure “adequate” and “equitable” funding. But adequacy is a moving target. Inflation, labor markets, and mandated services don’t wait for Beacon Hill to catch up.
For gateway cities like Methuen, small percentage differences matter a lot. A fraction of a percent can mean the difference between maintaining services and cutting them.
It doesn’t help that Chapter 70 isn’t just insufficient, it’s unpredictable. This is another hard truth that gets lost in the headlines: Chapter 70 funding has been erratic for years
(Source: DESE https://www.doe.mass.edu/finance/chapter70/default.html).
Looking back from FY19 through FY27, Methuen’s Chapter 70 aid tells a story of sharp swings rather than steady, reliable growth. Some years brought modest increases barely clearing inflation. Others delivered double-digit jumps.
To put it plainly:
Methuen has seen increases as low as 0.42% in one year
And spikes as high as 16% in others
Followed by a steady tapering back down to 3.52% and now 2.312%
That volatility matters and has a direct impact on our kids, the continuity of their education, and effectiveness.
School districts don’t hire teachers, negotiate contracts, or build programs on one-year money. They plan in multi-year cycles, with long-term obligations that don’t disappear when state aid growth slows.
When Chapter 70 jumps suddenly, districts are often forced to use the money to:
Backfill years of underfunding
Address deferred staffing and services
Cover mandated costs that already exist
And when growth drops back down, like it has now and the last 2 budget cycles, those obligations remain.
For a city with limited short-term tax base growth, rising contractual salary obligations, and increasing special education and transportation costs, an unpredictable aid stream creates real risk. It encourages short-term budgeting decisions and makes long-range planning harder than it should be.
…it becomes clear why pressure is building.
This isn’t about blaming any single administration or budget cycle. It’s about recognizing that “up is not the same as stable.”
Cities like Methuen don’t need surprise windfalls followed by slowdowns. They need predictable, sustainable growth that at least tracks with the real cost of running schools year over year.
Without that, even “increases” can function like cuts quietly, over time.
So what can we do…?
Advocacy matters, especially before the budget is finalized.
Here’s how to engage productively:
Contact your state delegation and advocate for additional allocations in future iterations of the budget.
Pay attention to the House and Senate versions of the budget. This is where numbers can change. (Historically, they haven’t, but they can…)
Show up locally. School Committee and City Council meetings matter because they shape how limited dollars are prioritized.
Ask better questions: Not “Why are taxes high?” but “What services do we want, and how are they sustainably funded?”
The Bottom Line
A $1.64 million increase may seem like progress until you compare it to a 3% payroll increase, rising fixed costs, and other state-imposed costs that grow even faster. Methuen isn’t standing still, it’s trying to keep pace on a treadmill that keeps speeding up.
The governor’s proposal is a starting point, not a finish line. If residents care about class sizes, services, and long-term stability, now is the moment to speak up.
Because budgets aren’t just spreadsheets. They’re policy choices.